Risk & markets guides
Learn the key concepts with worked examples, sources and links to calculators.
What this topic covers
Retirement risk is not just "the market might fall". It is the interaction between when losses arrive, how long they last, how much you withdraw and how inflation behaves at the same time. During accumulation, a drawdown can be an opportunity to buy more units. During withdrawal, selling assets after a fall locks in the loss and reduces the base that must recover.
Sequence-of-returns risk is the name for that timing problem. A run of poor early years can matter more than the long-run average, which is why "the same average return" is not a sufficient test of a plan. Inflation adds a second front: a withdrawal that looks safe in nominal terms can lose purchasing power for two decades.
The sequence-of-returns guide explains the mechanics; the bucket strategy guide and calculator show one way to hold cash and shorter-duration assets so a downturn does not force a sale at the bottom. Neither removes risk — they move it.
Guides in this topic
Sequence of returns risk: why the first few years decide it
Poor returns early in retirement hurt far more than poor returns late. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it's the biggest reason portfolios fail.